Fact-Checking the Flimsy Case for Trump's Economic War on Cuba
July 3, 2026
By Blake Burdge & Reed Lindsay
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now arguing that Cuba represents a national security threat because it’s a "failed state," effectively using the humanitarian crisis brought about by the policies he masterminded in order to justify continuing those very policies.
This circular reasoning is just the latest absurdity — largely unquestioned by major media outlets — the Trump administration has presented as an argument for regime change in Cuba.
A host of other reasons can be found in Donald Trump's January 29 executive order threatening tariffs against any country that exports oil to Cuba. The order states that the oil blockade is necessary because Cuba represents a "national emergency" and poses an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the United States. It then backs up these claims with a kitchen-sink assortment of flimsy and ludicrous justifications, to which Rubio has subsequently added.
Here are the Trump administration’s main arguments for waging economic war on Cuba — and why they deserve scrutiny:
1. Cuba hosts Russian and Chinese spy bases
What the Trump administration says
Trump claims that Cuba hosts Russia’s “largest overseas signals intelligence facility” in addition to Chinese spy bases. These allegations are not new. During the 2016 Republican primary debate in Miami, then-Senator Marco Rubio alleged that Russia had a spy base in Cuba known as Lourdes while China had a base in a municipality called Bejucal.
Why that claim doesn’t hold up
There is no conclusive evidence that either China or Russia have a spy base in Cuba.
Russia did have a massive spy base in Cuba known as Lourdes — during the Cold War. Vladimir Putin closed the base in 2001, and a year later, it was replaced by a public university. (Stay tuned for our upcoming report from the university, where our efforts to find Russian spies proved fruitless).
Allegations of Chinese spy bases have relied largely on anonymous officials and satellite imagery obtained by the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, which recently acknowledged that there was “no clear publicly available evidence” proving China’s presence at Bejucal.
Two years ago, we traveled to Bejucal and two other supposed sites and found no evidence of Chinese spies or spy bases.
Why that claim is hypocritical
While there is no proof that Russia and China are using Cuba to spy on the United States, the Trump administration is openly spying on Cuba. In April, a U.S. military surveillance drone was spotted flying off Cuba’s coast for several hours, circling in holding patterns near Havana and Santiago de Cuba.
The United States operates more than 800 military and intelligence facilities around the world, including bases used for surveillance, drone operations, missile defense and overseas military campaigns.
2. Cuba harbors Hamas and Hezbollah
What the Trump administration says
The Trump administration says Cuba “welcomes” Hamas and Hezbollah, providing a “safe environment” for them to build “economic, cultural and security ties” throughout the Western Hemisphere.
Why that claim doesn’t hold up
The administration has provided no evidence that Cuba is supporting Hamas or Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere or that they have any presence on the island.
There are, in fact, hundreds of Palestinians in Cuba. They’re training to be doctors, alongside medical students from over 100 countries at the Latin American School of Medicine (ELAM).
To hear what Palestinian medical students in Cuba have to say about the claim that Hamas and Hezbollah are active on the island, watch our video: Is Cuba a Safe Haven for Hamas and Hezbollah?
3. Cuba supports terrorism
What the Trump administration says
Trump officials say Cuba is “one of the leading sponsors of terrorism” in the Western Hemisphere.
Why that claim doesn’t hold up
Days before Trump assumed office, the Biden administration concluded there was “no credible evidence” that Cuba sponsored terrorism, which has been the consensus position in the intelligence community for decades. The Trump administration has presented no new evidence to support its claim.
Why that claim is hypocritical
While there is no credible evidence that Cuba sponsors terrorism, the U.S. government has a long history of providing safe haven to Cuban-American terrorists who have carried out attacks against Cuba.
Among them was Luis Posada Carriles, a former CIA-trained operative who admitted to organizing a 1997 Havana hotel bombing campaign, which killed an Italian tourist and injured others. He was also implicated, along with Orlando Bosch, in the 1976 bombing of Cubana Flight 455, which killed 73 people, including children and every member of Cuba’s national fencing team. Neither Posada Carriles nor Bosch was tried for murder or terrorism in the United States, where they lived freely until their deaths.
4. Cuba destabilizes the region
What the Trump administration says
Cuba “destabilizes” the Western Hemisphere through “migration and violence.”
Why that claim doesn’t hold up
For years, Cuba has been a key security partner for the United States in the region, working closely with the U.S. Coast Guard and other U.S. agencies to track drug traffickers, share intelligence and disrupt smuggling routes. Despite the Trump administration’s hostility, Cuba continues to receive deportation flights and the Cuban Border Guard cooperates with the U.S. Coast Guard to prevent unauthorized migration. Meanwhile, according to the State Department’s 2024 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, drug traffickers steer clear of the island due to the Cuban government’s “robust and aggressive security presence,” which stops transnational criminal organizations from gaining a foothold.
Why that claim is hypocritical
The single biggest factor driving unprecedented migration from Cuba in recent years has been U.S. sanctions, which have devastated Cuba’s economy and gutted the state’s ability to provide basic social services.
5. The Cuban government does not respect human rights
What the Trump administration says
Cuba persecutes political opponents, denies free speech, imprisons peaceful protesters and “commits other human rights violations.”
Why that claim is hypocritical
The Trump administration does not articulate why it believes alleged human rights abuses in Cuba pose a threat to U.S. national security. Nor has it attempted to reconcile its professed concern for the rights of people in Cuba with imposing an oil blockade that United Nations experts say is producing “grave consequences for human rights.” Nor has it explained why its concern for human rights seems limited only to Cuba — Trump’s National Security Strategy does not mention “human rights” once and the administration has shown no concern for egregious abuses in El Salvador, Israel, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, among other countries.
Meanwhile, as the Trump administration accuses Cuba of stifling dissent and imprisoning protesters, it is expanding its assault on political activism at home. Nine people who participated in a protest outside a Texas ICE detention facility were sentenced from 30 to 100 years under terrorism-related charges. Another 15 anti-ICE protesters are facing conspiracy charges in Minnesota.
6. Cuba’s leaders profit while ordinary Cubans suffer
What the Trump administrations says
Cuba’s military-run conglomerate, GAESA, is hoarding $18 billion that it has “stolen” from the Cuban people.
Why that claim doesn’t hold up
There is no proof GAESA is hoarding any money, much less $18 billion, nor that it has misused or misappropriated funds. The $18-billion figure comes from an article in the Miami Herald, which draws sweeping conclusions based on an apparent misreading of a leaked document. See our analysis of the Herald’s fuzzy math HERE.
Why that claim is hypocritical
While there is no evidence that Cuban leaders are engaged in large-scale corruption, Trump’s net worth has reportedly skyrocketed from $2.3 billion to $6.2 billion less than two years into his second term.
7. Spreading communism
What the Trump administration says
Cuba is spreading “communist ideas, policies and practices” throughout the Americas.
Why that claim doesn’t hold up
If providing free and universal healthcare is a “communist idea, policy and practice” then Cuba may be guilty of this one. Cuba sends thousands of doctors to serve on international medical missions in dozens of countries, including in Italy (see our documentary about that mission HERE), where they provide free healthcare in underserved communities at the request of foreign governments.
Why that claim is hypocritical
While Cuba's medical missions are based on voluntary agreements, the Trump administration has sought to coerce governments into cutting ties with Cuba. In the last year, several countries have caved to U.S. pressure, ending Cuba’s medical missions and in the process leaving many without healthcare.
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