A Total Blockade on Oil to Cuba?

The Trump administration is reportedly considering a naval blockade on oil imports to Cuba as a new avenue for forcing regime change, according to a recent article in Politico. The report is based entirely on anonymous sources who said a decision has not been made about whether to enact the blockade. “Energy is the chokehold to kill the regime,” one said.

Trump told reporters on Tuesday Cuba is no longer receiving oil from Venezuela, and that the government “will be failing pretty soon.”

​China and Russia have publicly voiced opposition to the potential blockade. Russia is one of Cuba’s few remaining petroleum suppliers.

Even if Trump doesn’t impose a naval blockade — which would amount to a war crime — he could still intensify a de facto blockade already in place by pressuring or coercing other countries to halt shipments.

There have been reports that Trump is ratcheting up pressure on Mexico to stop shipping oil to Cuba.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated last week that Mexico would continue to support Cuba in the face of the U.S. government’s “extreme blockade.”

But on Monday, news broke that Pemex, Mexico’s state oil company, had removed a planned crude oil shipment to Cuba from its schedule without explanation. 

In her daily press conferences on Tuesday and Wednesday, Sheinbaum did not confirm or deny whether a shipment had been stopped.

“Humanitarian aid to Cuba continues, as it does to other countries because it’s humanitarian aid,” she said on Wednesday. “These are sovereign decisions.”

Mexico surpassed Venezuela in 2025 as Cuba’s main oil supplier. It’s not clear how the island is getting oil now, but fuel shortages appear to be getting more severe. In recent weeks, power outages in Havana have increased to upwards of 12 hours a day. They are even worse in other parts of the country.